The title of this post is from a tweet (Twitter message) from a source that I follow. However, it succinctly summarizes some of the evolving trends in information management in general, and library sciences in particular. In this case, the title is referring to an article in The New York Times titled, "Some Fear Google’s Power in Digital Books," which describes Google's activities related to digitizing the world's written record. While issues of copyright, fair use, and author protection remain issues, it demonstrates the amount of effort going into the subject and some of the proposed solutions. That the written record will be digitized is not in doubt. The only questions are when it will occur, the technology that will be used, and what it will cost the consumer.
For more on this subject, read the original article at: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/02/technology/internet/02link.html?_r=1
What do you think about this subject?
Showing posts with label technology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label technology. Show all posts
Monday, February 2, 2009
Monday, January 26, 2009
Tipping Point 2009: Part 1
Predictions and prognostications are a stable at the beginning of every year. This post is a little different. The developments proposed here are all currently available and represent viable, proven technologies. The subject here is when the technology will reach a critical mass in the mainstream market, thus representing a tipping point for mass acceptance and adoption. I propose the following will have a tipping point in 2009.
A convergrnce of a poor economy; rising cable television costs; redundant pricing for bundled cable TV and Internet; improved Internet bandwidth; improved video compression; and expanded TV content available on the Internet may mean the tipping point for Internet over cable TV (and satellite TV). Add to these developments the expanded use of boxes such as the Apple TV; TVs with direct Internet connectivity, home network appliances that can stream audio and video and the tipping point appears imminant. These are no longer technologies seen at CES. Rather, the increased viewership of Hulu, iTunes downloads, and the ever increasing popularity of YouTube video content all point to a massive shift in media preference. Indeed, the proliferation of mainstream YouTube "channels" by organizations such as the Vatican only underscore the occurring shift.
You will know the tipping point has occurred when content creators begin to sue content aggregators for a piece of the action in much the same way the RIAA has gone after various music aggregators. The impact will be massive. Many local TV stations will be disintermediated. This change may actually be a saving grace for newspapers on their last legs. If the newspaper has developed an Internet presence, it might become the local source.
Another indicator of this tipping point is when local broadcasters begin (or increase) their lobby efforts to place restrictions on content origination outside a geographic area. Local broadcasters have previously been successful in these efforts resulting in limitations on satellite TV providers from providing direct east and west coast network feeds. Presently, satellite providers may only do so if the location is not serviced by a local broadcast station. Otherwise, the provider must offer the local broadcast feed. Expect this fight to move to the Internet.
What is your opinion on this subject?
A convergrnce of a poor economy; rising cable television costs; redundant pricing for bundled cable TV and Internet; improved Internet bandwidth; improved video compression; and expanded TV content available on the Internet may mean the tipping point for Internet over cable TV (and satellite TV). Add to these developments the expanded use of boxes such as the Apple TV; TVs with direct Internet connectivity, home network appliances that can stream audio and video and the tipping point appears imminant. These are no longer technologies seen at CES. Rather, the increased viewership of Hulu, iTunes downloads, and the ever increasing popularity of YouTube video content all point to a massive shift in media preference. Indeed, the proliferation of mainstream YouTube "channels" by organizations such as the Vatican only underscore the occurring shift.
You will know the tipping point has occurred when content creators begin to sue content aggregators for a piece of the action in much the same way the RIAA has gone after various music aggregators. The impact will be massive. Many local TV stations will be disintermediated. This change may actually be a saving grace for newspapers on their last legs. If the newspaper has developed an Internet presence, it might become the local source.
Another indicator of this tipping point is when local broadcasters begin (or increase) their lobby efforts to place restrictions on content origination outside a geographic area. Local broadcasters have previously been successful in these efforts resulting in limitations on satellite TV providers from providing direct east and west coast network feeds. Presently, satellite providers may only do so if the location is not serviced by a local broadcast station. Otherwise, the provider must offer the local broadcast feed. Expect this fight to move to the Internet.
What is your opinion on this subject?
Friday, December 12, 2008
IT Trends 2015
I was reading an article in CIO Insight (http://tinyurl.com/5sndqg) titled "The IT Organization, Circa 2015 - Trends." in it, the author discussed how the CIO will become more of a business manager and less of a technical manager; IT personnel will become more business savvy; IT "alignment" will continue; and how the IT organization will tend towards centralization.
In looking at IT trends (and telecommunication trends for that matter) for the past four decades, IT business focus, IT alignment, and centralization have been consistent themes. In that same period, IT personnel have actually become less business savvy, IT alignment continues to be problematic, and the contention between centralization and decentralization is as strong as it ever was.
A new generation of worker is coming into the IT workplace. These individuals are more technology aware than their predecessors, but they still tend to fall on the side of technology (geek) or business. Therefore the divide continues and will continue into 2015. While many IT organizations spent great amounts of time during the 1970s-1980s getting IT personnel to understand the business and the impact of IT on that business, most of that responsibility has been moved to the college classroom. Unfortunately, there is no substitute for on-the-job training. Therefore, the divide between IT and the business side of the house is likely to increase rather than decrease. This will only be more so as baby boomers retire ( or are ushered out the door to cut costs) and college graduates without work experience replace them.
As long as CIOs have a separate IT budget, business alignment with IT will continue to be a problem. Geeks like technology. Having the money to buy it is liked even more. The only constraint in this area is the economy. It will take several years before the IT budgets loosen up. Suffice it to say constrained budgets will result in hiring IT geeks with little real business experience. In turn, these geeks will push for the latest and greatest technology regardless of it's applicibility to the business operation.
The contention between centralization and decentralization has been around since the first group was assigned to operate the company's computer mainframe. IT has always been about centralization, standardization, and control. On the other hand, the line worker in a company's department wants the technology they want, when they want it, with the flexibility to make it do what they want it to do. Hence, IT departments bought mainframes and departments bought mini-computers; IT countered by tying mini-computers into the mainframe as a means of control and departments countered by buying PCs. IT countered by linking PCs to mainframes, this forcing standardization and security and departments countered by moving functionality to edge devices such as smartphones. Today, with cloud computing resources and applications readily available, it is possible for a department to completely bypass the IT organization. It can do so without long-term investment or long-term commitment. It remains to be seen how IT will respond and how the department will counter.
However, with the current economic situation running at least through 2009, it will be difficult for the IT department to do anything unless it reduces cost. The result will be less training on emerging technology, less investment in emerging technology, and less internal development.
What say you?
In looking at IT trends (and telecommunication trends for that matter) for the past four decades, IT business focus, IT alignment, and centralization have been consistent themes. In that same period, IT personnel have actually become less business savvy, IT alignment continues to be problematic, and the contention between centralization and decentralization is as strong as it ever was.
A new generation of worker is coming into the IT workplace. These individuals are more technology aware than their predecessors, but they still tend to fall on the side of technology (geek) or business. Therefore the divide continues and will continue into 2015. While many IT organizations spent great amounts of time during the 1970s-1980s getting IT personnel to understand the business and the impact of IT on that business, most of that responsibility has been moved to the college classroom. Unfortunately, there is no substitute for on-the-job training. Therefore, the divide between IT and the business side of the house is likely to increase rather than decrease. This will only be more so as baby boomers retire ( or are ushered out the door to cut costs) and college graduates without work experience replace them.
As long as CIOs have a separate IT budget, business alignment with IT will continue to be a problem. Geeks like technology. Having the money to buy it is liked even more. The only constraint in this area is the economy. It will take several years before the IT budgets loosen up. Suffice it to say constrained budgets will result in hiring IT geeks with little real business experience. In turn, these geeks will push for the latest and greatest technology regardless of it's applicibility to the business operation.
The contention between centralization and decentralization has been around since the first group was assigned to operate the company's computer mainframe. IT has always been about centralization, standardization, and control. On the other hand, the line worker in a company's department wants the technology they want, when they want it, with the flexibility to make it do what they want it to do. Hence, IT departments bought mainframes and departments bought mini-computers; IT countered by tying mini-computers into the mainframe as a means of control and departments countered by buying PCs. IT countered by linking PCs to mainframes, this forcing standardization and security and departments countered by moving functionality to edge devices such as smartphones. Today, with cloud computing resources and applications readily available, it is possible for a department to completely bypass the IT organization. It can do so without long-term investment or long-term commitment. It remains to be seen how IT will respond and how the department will counter.
However, with the current economic situation running at least through 2009, it will be difficult for the IT department to do anything unless it reduces cost. The result will be less training on emerging technology, less investment in emerging technology, and less internal development.
What say you?
Monday, December 1, 2008
IBM's "The Next Five in Five"
For the second year, IBM has released their "The Next Five in Five," their prognostication of technology to expect within the next five years. While some of these forecasts might actually see the light of day, don't expect all of them to be in wide adoption by the end of 2013. That is, they will be seen--some commercially--but they won't be used by the everyday person. The forecasts are:
1. Solar cells will be cheap and built into everything from glass windows to paint to asphalt. In turn this will usher in an energy revolution. Realistically, this is at least a decade away from widespread use.
2. You will be able to forecast your health through a diagnostic "crystal ball." Currently in limited use today, this forecast builds on increasingly sophisticated DNA analysis coupled with increasingly sophisticated clinical-labs-on-a-chip. Screens for certain cancers and other diseases are a real possibility in the next five years. Some are available today.
3. You will be using the "spoken Web." As IBM states, more of the world is spoken language literate than it is written word literate. Therefore, in order to reach a wider audience, the Web must go "verbal." This is already happening on a number of fronts. First, most PCs and Macs today can convert written words to voice. A number of services will allow you to access your email verbally using a phone. Second, with technologies introduced by Google, search requests can be made using the spoken word. The reverse is also true. Services such as Jott and Evernote will take spoken words and convert them to text. This trend is sure to increase over the next five years.
4. You will increasingly have access to and use "digital shopping assistants." Many are here today. For example, Ikea has terminals throughout their stores for customer use to look-up and find merchandise. A number of Web applications will allow you to comparison shop. Phone-based applications allow you to do the same thing right in the store. Finally, with location-aware phones, it is possible for an application to make shopping suggestions based on your current location. These capabilities will only get more sophisticated in the next five years.
5. You will never forget anything. A strong statement to be sure. IBM is referring to the huge number of technologies that are currently available or will be available in the next five years that will allow a person to record and recall information using spoken word, digital images, or captured screen shots. The technology will enable tagging, indexing, scheduling, and recall of virtually anything. Again, a variety of "To Do" list applications do this today on cell phones and synchronize that information so it can be accessed on the Web or many other devices. These capabilities--such as "Remember the Milk," "Jott," and "Evernote"--will become more sophisticated, accurate, and feature-rich over the next five years.
A complete description of "The Next Five in Five" can be found at:
http://www-03.IBM.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/26170.wss
What say you?
1. Solar cells will be cheap and built into everything from glass windows to paint to asphalt. In turn this will usher in an energy revolution. Realistically, this is at least a decade away from widespread use.
2. You will be able to forecast your health through a diagnostic "crystal ball." Currently in limited use today, this forecast builds on increasingly sophisticated DNA analysis coupled with increasingly sophisticated clinical-labs-on-a-chip. Screens for certain cancers and other diseases are a real possibility in the next five years. Some are available today.
3. You will be using the "spoken Web." As IBM states, more of the world is spoken language literate than it is written word literate. Therefore, in order to reach a wider audience, the Web must go "verbal." This is already happening on a number of fronts. First, most PCs and Macs today can convert written words to voice. A number of services will allow you to access your email verbally using a phone. Second, with technologies introduced by Google, search requests can be made using the spoken word. The reverse is also true. Services such as Jott and Evernote will take spoken words and convert them to text. This trend is sure to increase over the next five years.
4. You will increasingly have access to and use "digital shopping assistants." Many are here today. For example, Ikea has terminals throughout their stores for customer use to look-up and find merchandise. A number of Web applications will allow you to comparison shop. Phone-based applications allow you to do the same thing right in the store. Finally, with location-aware phones, it is possible for an application to make shopping suggestions based on your current location. These capabilities will only get more sophisticated in the next five years.
5. You will never forget anything. A strong statement to be sure. IBM is referring to the huge number of technologies that are currently available or will be available in the next five years that will allow a person to record and recall information using spoken word, digital images, or captured screen shots. The technology will enable tagging, indexing, scheduling, and recall of virtually anything. Again, a variety of "To Do" list applications do this today on cell phones and synchronize that information so it can be accessed on the Web or many other devices. These capabilities--such as "Remember the Milk," "Jott," and "Evernote"--will become more sophisticated, accurate, and feature-rich over the next five years.
A complete description of "The Next Five in Five" can be found at:
http://www-03.IBM.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/26170.wss
What say you?
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Top Tech Strategies for 2008
The title is from an article in ComputerWorld by Paul Thibodeau recapping Gartner, Inc.'s key strategies that will be driving IT over the next year. (Refer to the PCWorld Web-site, http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/138327/top_tech_strategies_for_2008.html). Although not that far in the future, the strategies are worth noting here:
Green IT: The issue of energy efficiency and improved energy utilization will become a driving strategic issue for IT. As Thibodeau notes, if IT does not address it, governmental regulators will. Aside from these threats, increasing energy costs and access to adequate energy sources will increasingly become an organizational issue, not just impacting IT. Those organizations that address this issue early obtain a significant competitive advantage because while energy costs are currently variable, the trend is that those costs will continue to increase at an ever increasing rate.
Unified Communications: Simply put, running everything down the same pipe. Once information is converted to digital, a bit does not know whether it is a voice bit, video bit, image bit, or data bit. As a result, communication convergence enables capabilities such as email read through an audio device, phone messages to be available through an email system, and similar simplification of communication interchanges. The result is better communication, improved information transfer, and improved interaction among organizational entities and customers.
Business Process Management (BPM): While Thibodeau describes this as not being technology, I would disagree. BPM is a technology issue. It represents the development of common communication standards, common technology interfaces, and common transaction types that enable multiple departments within an organization and multiple organizations to efficiently and effectively trade information. In turn, this ability will reduce cycle time between transaction initiation and transaction fulfillment. The result will be increased responsiveness, improved accuracy, reduced rework, reduced cost, and increased competitiveness. It also offers the opportunity for an organization to more closely couple with their customers, thus effectively increasing customer loyalty.
Metadata Management: The vast majority of information an organization needs to effectively operate and position for the future exists today in the organization's various IT repositories. Unfortunately, the ability to find, retrieve, relate, join, consolidate, analyze, and use that various information is problematic at best. Increasingly, competitive advantage is being obtained by organizations that can effectively use this various data. It requires extensive understanding of what data are available, creating common definitions of data types and data usage, and providing integrated retrieval capabilities. The good news is that most companies are behind in this area. The bad news is that those to first achieve this ability will enjoy significant competitive advantage in terms of reduced response to market time, increased organizational flexibility, and the ability to effectively integrate customers directly into the infrastructure via Business Process Management technologies discussed earlier.
Virtualization: Utilization is the key here. Whenever you have a dedicated anything, if it is not being used at optimal capacity, there is waste. Anytime you have physical devices that operate at less than optimal capacity, you experience this problem. The solution is to work with "virtual" devices--servers, communication circuits, and display devices. By virtualizing the device, the ability to scale the device is increased so that utilization remains high. The result is that one large device can serve multiple uses and can adjust to meet peak demands from various users without the need to augment overall capacity. This provides cost savings (you use what you buy), responsiveness (you have what you need when you need it), and increased manageability (working with logical devices is simpler than working with physical devices). As an aside not addressed by Gartner, the ability to virtualize certain devices provides improved customer satisfaction. For example, the iPhone is a virtualized device (it is in fact a network connected computer) that provides phone access, Internet access, video access, and information access--morphing as the need arises.
Mashups: Mashups are the embodiment of what John Naisbett called "mass customization." Mashups provide the ability for the end-user to combine a variety of Internet information into new information views that meet a particular need. The objective is that the mashup is easy to accomplish and that various data sources provide the ability to be "mashed." In turn, the ease with which a particular organization provides their data in a format that can easily be used in a mashup determines how many customers will actually access and use that information. Once a customer has a mashup they like, they will be reluctant to change. The result is that if you are not first in, you may be excluded for a long time.
The Web Platform: Closely aligned with virtualization, this strategic development defines the move from local, dedicated applications to virtualized, Web-based applications that are effectively network-centric. As mentioned in the article, this strategy describes the shift from owned hardware and software devices to the Internet "cloud" computing, storage, and networking environment. Probably the most interesting thing about this development is that it is not new. It has been a trend that started in the late 1990s but has continued to gain momentum ever since. It will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
Computing Fabric: Gartner treats this development as something new that is in the early stages of development. In actuality, it has been in development and has been rolling out for more two decades. Back in the mid-1980s, AT&T (the original one) developed a concept called the "Closely-coupled Computing Ensemble" (C3E). It basically consisted of a high-speed bus with various computing resources attached--compute, storage, math processors, graphics processors, and input/output devices. Sitting on top of this ensemble was an operating system supervisor that directed work to available resources. The result was maximum utilization, reduced bottlenecks, and improved throughput. But the computing fabric has been around for decades. Storage-area networks, network-attached storage, specialized servers (such as print servers), grid computing, on-demand computing, Web-based applications, and cloud computing are all examples of the deployment of a computing fabric. The point is that this is not a future development, but rather a rapidly accelerating trend.
Real-World Web: Similar to my thoughts on ”Computing Fabric,” the real-world Web is all about how the computing, access tools, and the network are increasingly being used. As with Mashups, end-users are increasingly finding increased value in Internet services, the overwhelming majority being provided through the Web. Retail sales have been long established, dating back to text-based services such as Prodigy in the 1980s. Today, that simple service has developed into the highly sophisticated retail/distribution/warehousing/fulfillment/logistics ecosystems such as Amazon.com. What I believe Gartner is getting at here is that these ecosystems will continue to multiply and though Mashups, continue to evolve into ever sophisticated combinations that will provide more, valued information and services to the end-user. As an example, I can now tie retail services such as Circuit City to Google Maps and Weather Channel forecasts to obtain a specific product, ensure that it is in-stock, gain the best price, find the closest location, obtain the best route (with fewest delays and construction), and determine the weather along that route—all from a consolidated Web page. The result is better service, reduced seek time, maximized value, increased customer satisfaction, and the establishment of a customer loyalty chain (if it worked this time, it will likely work the next, thus eliminating competition). The real-world Web is not about looking for things; it is all about finding things and solving real-world problems.
Social Software: Humans are by nature social animals. That’s why we form groups, societies, cultures, organizations, and nations. Throughout the development of the computing/information age, there has been this concern that we humans are becoming increasingly isolated and non-social. Lost in these beliefs is the fact that people write emails much more often than they ever wrote letters; or the fact that almost everyone I see is talking on a cell phone, something not possible with a landline phone. Add to that the typical cell phone has a single rate regardless of location within a country (and increasingly often international access), and there is a strong argument that technology has made us more socially connected. What differentiates this technology-based social connection from social software is the difference between point-to-point communication and multi-point and collaborative communication—it re-establishes the social network so that communication, exchange, ideation, interests, recreation, and work can be shared, group experiences. This strategic development probably started with telephone party lines and has morphed through chain email letters to today’s online shared environments such as Google’s Docs and Spreadsheets, MySpace, and Facebook (not to mention these blog spaces).
Regardless of your view on these strategies or trends, they are developments that will directly impact how organizations perform work, reach customers, interact, inform, and compete in the future. From that viewpoint, organizations must look at them, determine how and when they should engage, and determine whether value lies in development, acquisition, or partnering to take full advantage of these developments.
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
More Thoughts on iPhone as the Future
My last post related to positioning technology such as the iPhone in context of what that meant for the future. The intention of this post is to expand further on iPhone's impact now that I have had a chance to work with the platform and the apparent ecosystem that is rapidly developing around it.
The iPhone as Communication Device: The more I have played with it, the more I believe the iPhone to be a new class of network access device. It provides both telephonic and digital data access in a small, large-screen, lightweight footprint. The key for the future is that it is fully capable of wireless cellular voice and data and Wi-Fi voice (VoIP) and data. Future versions (whether from Apple or another vendor) can be expected to expand on this to offer 3G, Wi-Max or whatever else comes along on the next couple of years. The key here is that the communications platform is becoming independent of the communications network. This results in more freedom for the consumer and commoditization and consolidation of the network services sector.
The iPhone as Presentation Device: There is a lot of talk about the lack of a finder, inability to save documents, and the inability to add applications to the iPhone. I suppose that is true and the OS X operating system definitely has the power and capability to provide these. However, suppose for a moment that the intention of the iPhone is not to add more to the phone, but rather to provide improved access to content ,applications, storage, and capability through the network.
If that is the case, the iPhone could change not just phones, but change our whole view of mobile computing. Seen in this context, the iPhone becomes the disruptive enabler of the next generation Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) model. Supporting Apple in this venture are Google, Yahoo, and Salesforce.com to name a few. Indeed, a quick search for "iPhone applications" through Google will bring back a number of individual applications as well as a number of application aggregators. If interested, a few that will indicate the range of applications are http://www.mockdock.com and http://getleaflets.com. Both of these sites provide a Web page that looks like the main screen on the iPhone and enable the user to place application icons on that page so access to the applications can be accomplished by pressing a linked icon.
At present, these applications are really "gadgets" or "widgets" that are available through tools such as Google's gadget bar or Windows Vista's gadget bar. While fun and convenient on a desktop, these small applets become highly usable portable tools when provided through a mobile communication and presentation device such as smart phone. For example, there are gadgets available that will find Wi-Fi hotspots simply by keying in the ZIP code (although in all fairness, similar information can be gained by keying in "wifi" and a ZIP code in the iPhone's Google Map application). Other gadgets range from applications that list the lowest gas prices in a ZIP code to news readers and social network interfaces.
Together, the communication and presentation capabilities of this class of device represents quite a force in the emerging mobile communication space, especially when you consider that a number of these applications target small to medium size businesses and those are the enterprises that are typically early technology adopters. Indeed, it was this market sector that was the early adopter of the PC, the Web as a market, and SaaS as an application delivery mode.
The iPhone as Communication Device: The more I have played with it, the more I believe the iPhone to be a new class of network access device. It provides both telephonic and digital data access in a small, large-screen, lightweight footprint. The key for the future is that it is fully capable of wireless cellular voice and data and Wi-Fi voice (VoIP) and data. Future versions (whether from Apple or another vendor) can be expected to expand on this to offer 3G, Wi-Max or whatever else comes along on the next couple of years. The key here is that the communications platform is becoming independent of the communications network. This results in more freedom for the consumer and commoditization and consolidation of the network services sector.
The iPhone as Presentation Device: There is a lot of talk about the lack of a finder, inability to save documents, and the inability to add applications to the iPhone. I suppose that is true and the OS X operating system definitely has the power and capability to provide these. However, suppose for a moment that the intention of the iPhone is not to add more to the phone, but rather to provide improved access to content ,applications, storage, and capability through the network.
If that is the case, the iPhone could change not just phones, but change our whole view of mobile computing. Seen in this context, the iPhone becomes the disruptive enabler of the next generation Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) model. Supporting Apple in this venture are Google, Yahoo, and Salesforce.com to name a few. Indeed, a quick search for "iPhone applications" through Google will bring back a number of individual applications as well as a number of application aggregators. If interested, a few that will indicate the range of applications are http://www.mockdock.com and http://getleaflets.com. Both of these sites provide a Web page that looks like the main screen on the iPhone and enable the user to place application icons on that page so access to the applications can be accomplished by pressing a linked icon.
At present, these applications are really "gadgets" or "widgets" that are available through tools such as Google's gadget bar or Windows Vista's gadget bar. While fun and convenient on a desktop, these small applets become highly usable portable tools when provided through a mobile communication and presentation device such as smart phone. For example, there are gadgets available that will find Wi-Fi hotspots simply by keying in the ZIP code (although in all fairness, similar information can be gained by keying in "wifi" and a ZIP code in the iPhone's Google Map application). Other gadgets range from applications that list the lowest gas prices in a ZIP code to news readers and social network interfaces.
Together, the communication and presentation capabilities of this class of device represents quite a force in the emerging mobile communication space, especially when you consider that a number of these applications target small to medium size businesses and those are the enterprises that are typically early technology adopters. Indeed, it was this market sector that was the early adopter of the PC, the Web as a market, and SaaS as an application delivery mode.
Wednesday, July 4, 2007
Disconnecting
Okay, this may seem like a review of the iPhone, but the intention is to place technology SUCH AS the iPhone into perspective when considering where technology is going. This discussion is not about new marketing and sales models between device manufacturers and network providers. This discussion is not about Steve Jobs' ability to pull together hardware, software, and content providers to sell an integrated whole. This discussion is all about the impact a new class of device and the associated capabilities that device will have on the ability to communicate effectively, efficiently, and effortlessly.
To date, wireless technology has taken (by my count) nine major advances:
To date, wireless technology has taken (by my count) nine major advances:
- Yelling loudly
- Sound signalling using drums and other devices to make sound carry over a longer distance
- Visual signalling using pinafore flags, smoke signals, fire, mirrored surfaces, and the like to enable recognition over line-of-sight distances
- Point-to-point radio transmission enabling communication over long distances, but limited to users that have compatible equipment, using the same modulation methods, and using the same frequencies
- Two-way radio systems that enabled anyone with compatible equipment to communicate with each other and providing multiple channels enabling higher capacity
- Pagers enabling basic signalling to a unique individual from virtually any telephone
- Analog cellular telephone systems enabling the dial-up telephone to become truly mobile
- Digital cellular/Personal Communication Services (PCS) increasing the carrying capacity of the wireless network while providing additional wireless communication capabilities such as caller ID, SMS messaging, email, and various abbreviated versions of Internet browsing
- The integrated wireless communications device such as the iPhone
Yes, I think the iPhone is and will be making that big an impact on wireless communications. The prediction is based as much on the concept as it is the product itself. Apple has designed a truly innovative user interface. To be sure, there are features that are missing (more about that later), but it still represents a giant leap forward. A comparison to other smart devices will show why.
The first of the lot was RIM's Blackberry. When it started, it was a pure play messaging device, with a smaller screen than a computer and a smaller keyboard to match. The innovation was shrinking the features but still making it usable and providing an efficient interface to popular corporate email systems (this latter feature remains one of its main draws). Additional features such as a thumb wheel for scrolling, or the "pearl" button for navigating were present on other, less smart phones at the time.
Then came the Treo. It took its cue from the Blackberry by using a similar shrunken keyboard and adding a phone to the popular Palm PDA. Once Handspring/Palm moved away from script (Graffiti) input, the only innovation was to combine a PDA with a phone. To be sure, later models expanded on the capability to approach a handheld computer, but the real innovation was combining a full-featured PDA and phone.
Then came Windows Mobile phones. These phones took their cues from various smart-phones by attempting to take a desktop operating system and make one for phones that would provide much the same feel. In doing so, the number of compromises that were made in early versions was such that it managed to transfer the look and feel of the desktop Windows operating system to a phone, but lost in the effort was the fact that doing so made for a lousy phone interface. Subsequent Windows Mobile releases have significantly improved on the initial versions to the point where Windows Mobile has managed to mimic much of the Palm Treo's features. In this context, all the Windows Mobile operating system (and resulting phones) has managed to do is capture market share from Palm. There was really no true innovation in feature or function.
In the case of RIM, Palm, and Microsoft, all three (along with their supporting vendors) have managed to add MP3, Web browsing, and email capabilities. However, there have been significant trade-offs made that make these devices mediocre MP3 players, Web content viewing instruments, and email applications. In the case of MP3 playback, the interface has not been particularly elegant or easy to use. This is where the Apple iPod distinguished itself--it created a totally new interface that was intuitive, easy to use, space efficient, and very effective.
In the case of phone browsers, they all have had severe limitations. Some lacked popular plug-ins (such as Flash which is a major drawback of the current iPhone), while others attempted to institute new ways of presenting standard size Web pages in compact readable formats suitable for a phone or smart phone screen. For example, the Palm Blazer browser made a valiant effort at this providing both a narrow (Palm-sized screen) and a wide (scrollable full-size Web page) format. For the most part, this approach provided a passable Web browser. However, in many cases the Blazer browser was ill-behaved, resulting in weird rendering. Surprisingly, the scaled-down Internet Explorer embedded in Windows Mobile had many of the same issues.
In the case of email applications, all have had their faults. Palm's Versamail was ill-behaved when dealing with HTML formatted messages. Microsoft's mobile Outlook provided much of the look and feel of its big desktop brother, but there were still problems with rendering media-rich emails.
In contrast, the iPhone has provided a giant innovative leap on all these fronts. First, the iPod capabilities of the iPhone has moved the user interface forward from their already industry-leading interface--the touch-sensitive wheel. I would suspect that the iPhone previews how the third-generation iPod will look and work.
Second, while there is a lot to be desired in the Safari browser, the iPhone's Safari browser is simply the best Web rendering application available on a phone. As mentioned earlier, there are drawbacks with the lack of Flash support and some Java holes, but I fully expect these to be fixed fairly rapidly as adoption of the iPhone continues to expand. With that said, with few exceptions, the iPhone's browser provides the best rendering match to desktop browser available. This is particularly true since the image can be viewed sideways in a wider view. Add to this the innovative "double-tap" or "pinch" magnifying, and Apple has provided a capability that can effectively replace a desktop browser. Now, it they can just add the features to edit this blog through the iPhone (the Java available evidently does not allow me to write or edit this through the iPhone--however, I can post to messages). To underscore this, today is the first time I have been on a laptop in three days. All browsing has been done on the iPhone.
Third, the iPhone's email interface is positively outstanding. It is easy to navigate, read, and delete. Add to these basic features the fact that it renders full HTML email and the iPhone's email system is simply the best around. However, it could be better (it may be better and I haven't found the features yet). For example, I would like to be able to create email folders and move messages to those folders on the iPhone. A "delete all" capability for the "Trash" folder would also be a nice addition. Yet, even with features such as this missing, the visual look and the gesture control is a leap forward in mobile email applications. Again, this is the first time I have looked at email on a laptop in three days.
Taken together, the iPhone's various features represent the first of a new generation of devices that could well begin to replace the laptop much as the laptop has replaced the desktop computer. The iPhone has already done that for email and Web-browsing. If Apple decides to expand the iPhone's OS-X capabilities so that files can be saved and searched via a "Finder" application, they will have moved significantly closer. At present, the iPhone is a benchmark for email, Web browsing, and messaging. I would also add to that the fact that Google's Maps application is easier to use than their Web-based version. While the Yahoo Stock application is passable, it would be nice to re-order stocks to individual liking and to take a person to the Finance page relating to that stock instead of a specialized combined page that places too much irrelevant information on the screen. If a person is looking at Yahoo's Stock application and they want to go to the Web, they want to drill-down into the specific stock, not do a general search.
The same problem arises with the Yahoo Weather application. When you go to the Web, you want more detail on the weather for that location, now an additional summary and then a general search result for the location. What I would really like is a view of radar for that location. I have bookmarked the Weather Underground page in Safari to provide the radar view, but it would be a lot more usable if pressing the "Y!" icon at the bottom of the application would take you to a radar view. A final gripe about the weather application is that it would be nice if the icon on the main iPhone page showed the current temperature much as the appointments icon shows the current day. With all the attention to detail, go figure how these simple aspects were overlooked.
As you can see, I had to dig deep to find something to complain about on the iPhone. There are others. However, for a first generation attempt, especially one that can fix many of its shortcomings in software upgrades, Apple has more than lived up to the hype created for this phone. If they keep their development momentum and continue to expand their partnerships with Google and Yahoo, Apple will have no problem selling 10 million phones by the end of 2008 as well as taking a commanding lead in the mobile communication device market. It is the disruptive technology that will truly enable users to disconnect and remain in contact. It is that good.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Over Technologized
I took a trip over the U.S. Memorial Day holiday to attend a friend's wedding. For the most part, it was uneventful. However, an interesting thing happened when I stopped to fill-up with gasoline. I got out of the car and as I was about to enter my credit card information, the store attendant came out and said that I would be unable to pump gas because "the computer system is down." This wasn't a big imposition, I simply drove to another gas station.
It got me thinking about an event several years back when I stopped in at a local grocery store (a national chain) to pick up some plastic cups for a business exercise I was giving the next day. It was about 2:00AM, and after looking all over the store for the cups, I finally found them and took them to the checkout lane. The store clerk looked at me and stated that it would be approximately 30 minutes before she could check me out because the system was being updated.
This technological world is a real marvel of convenience, responsiveness, and availability. We can email from our phones; take pictures with digital cameras; talk globally from our computers; receive HD television over our fiber-optic cable; carry, view, or listen to thousands of pictures or songs on our iPods; determine our location within a few feet with our global positioning system; and even view the temperature on our watches. Well, we can do all those things if everything works right. But as the two preceding examples indicate, if they don't work right, we may very well just be standing around.
As our world becomes more automated and electronically integrated, one has to wonder what would happen if a "glitch" caused a cascading failure. Of course there are back-ups, redundancies, alternates circuits and paths, so the chance of a catastrophic failure is remote, or so it would seem. Then again, Apollo 13 was a masterpiece of back-ups and redundancies. So was Challenger. So was Columbia. Yet they all failed.
Self-configuring and self-healing systems can help, but what happens if they can't? Or what happens if they are not fast enough? It could be a great plot for a novel. Think what would happen if a large number of these systems failed at once. I am reminded of that 1970 science fiction movie called "Collossus: The Forbin Project," where a super-computer is joined to the grid and it proceeds to take control of all computers in the world. It may be science fiction and it may be far fetched, but so were some of our space failures.
It got me thinking about an event several years back when I stopped in at a local grocery store (a national chain) to pick up some plastic cups for a business exercise I was giving the next day. It was about 2:00AM, and after looking all over the store for the cups, I finally found them and took them to the checkout lane. The store clerk looked at me and stated that it would be approximately 30 minutes before she could check me out because the system was being updated.
This technological world is a real marvel of convenience, responsiveness, and availability. We can email from our phones; take pictures with digital cameras; talk globally from our computers; receive HD television over our fiber-optic cable; carry, view, or listen to thousands of pictures or songs on our iPods; determine our location within a few feet with our global positioning system; and even view the temperature on our watches. Well, we can do all those things if everything works right. But as the two preceding examples indicate, if they don't work right, we may very well just be standing around.
As our world becomes more automated and electronically integrated, one has to wonder what would happen if a "glitch" caused a cascading failure. Of course there are back-ups, redundancies, alternates circuits and paths, so the chance of a catastrophic failure is remote, or so it would seem. Then again, Apollo 13 was a masterpiece of back-ups and redundancies. So was Challenger. So was Columbia. Yet they all failed.
Self-configuring and self-healing systems can help, but what happens if they can't? Or what happens if they are not fast enough? It could be a great plot for a novel. Think what would happen if a large number of these systems failed at once. I am reminded of that 1970 science fiction movie called "Collossus: The Forbin Project," where a super-computer is joined to the grid and it proceeds to take control of all computers in the world. It may be science fiction and it may be far fetched, but so were some of our space failures.
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