Showing posts with label future innovation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label future innovation. Show all posts

Monday, January 18, 2010

Cloud Labor

I blogged a while back about a concept called "Pop-Up Organizations," where dynamic, virtual organizations would organize using the Internet in order to deliver a product or service, or otherwise meet a need, and then disband. It was a concept that was predicted in one of the many forecasts that are published each year. Related to that concept is the concept of "cloud labor," where virtual workers come together to address a specific problem or deliver a service via the Internet.

The cloud labor concept was written about in the article, "Innovation: The relentless rise of the digital worker," by Justin Mullins and published January 15, 2010 on the New Scientist Web site. You can read more about it at:

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18395-innovation-the-relentless-rise-of-the-digital-worker.html

Needless to say, the pop-up organization is taking form in realtime.

Monday, February 2, 2009

Millions of Books, but No Card Catalog

The title of this post is from a tweet (Twitter message) from a source that I follow. However, it succinctly summarizes some of the evolving trends in information management in general, and library sciences in particular. In this case, the title is referring to an article in The New York Times titled, "Some Fear Google’s Power in Digital Books," which describes Google's activities related to digitizing the world's written record. While issues of copyright, fair use, and author protection remain issues, it demonstrates the amount of effort going into the subject and some of the proposed solutions. That the written record will be digitized is not in doubt. The only questions are when it will occur, the technology that will be used, and what it will cost the consumer.

For more on this subject, read the original article at: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/02/technology/internet/02link.html?_r=1

What do you think about this subject?


Monday, January 26, 2009

Tipping Point 2009: Part 1

Predictions and prognostications are a stable at the beginning of every year. This post is a little different. The developments proposed here are all currently available and represent viable, proven technologies. The subject here is when the technology will reach a critical mass in the mainstream market, thus representing a tipping point for mass acceptance and adoption. I propose the following will have a tipping point in 2009.

A convergrnce of a poor economy; rising cable television costs; redundant pricing for bundled cable TV and Internet; improved Internet bandwidth; improved video compression; and expanded TV content available on the Internet may mean the tipping point for Internet over cable TV (and satellite TV). Add to these developments the expanded use of boxes such as the Apple TV; TVs with direct Internet connectivity, home network appliances that can stream audio and video and the tipping point appears imminant. These are no longer technologies seen at CES. Rather, the increased viewership of Hulu, iTunes downloads, and the ever increasing popularity of YouTube video content all point to a massive shift in media preference. Indeed, the proliferation of mainstream YouTube "channels" by organizations such as the Vatican only underscore the occurring shift.

You will know the tipping point has occurred when content creators begin to sue content aggregators for a piece of the action in much the same way the RIAA has gone after various music aggregators. The impact will be massive. Many local TV stations will be disintermediated. This change may actually be a saving grace for newspapers on their last legs. If the newspaper has developed an Internet presence, it might become the local source.

Another indicator of this tipping point is when local broadcasters begin (or increase) their lobby efforts to place restrictions on content origination outside a geographic area. Local broadcasters have previously been successful in these efforts resulting in limitations on satellite TV providers from providing direct east and west coast network feeds. Presently, satellite providers may only do so if the location is not serviced by a local broadcast station. Otherwise, the provider must offer the local broadcast feed. Expect this fight to move to the Internet.

What is your opinion on this subject?


Friday, December 12, 2008

IT Trends 2015

I was reading an article in CIO Insight (http://tinyurl.com/5sndqg) titled "The IT Organization, Circa 2015 - Trends." in it, the author discussed how the CIO will become more of a business manager and less of a technical manager; IT personnel will become more business savvy; IT "alignment" will continue; and how the IT organization will tend towards centralization.

In looking at IT trends (and telecommunication trends for that matter) for the past four decades, IT business focus, IT alignment, and centralization have been consistent themes. In that same period, IT personnel have actually become less business savvy, IT alignment continues to be problematic, and the contention between centralization and decentralization is as strong as it ever was.

A new generation of worker is coming into the IT workplace. These individuals are more technology aware than their predecessors, but they still tend to fall on the side of technology (geek) or business. Therefore the divide continues and will continue into 2015. While many IT organizations spent great amounts of time during the 1970s-1980s getting IT personnel to understand the business and the impact of IT on that business, most of that responsibility has been moved to the college classroom. Unfortunately, there is no substitute for on-the-job training. Therefore, the divide between IT and the business side of the house is likely to increase rather than decrease. This will only be more so as baby boomers retire ( or are ushered out the door to cut costs) and college graduates without work experience replace them.

As long as CIOs have a separate IT budget, business alignment with IT will continue to be a problem. Geeks like technology. Having the money to buy it is liked even more. The only constraint in this area is the economy. It will take several years before the IT budgets loosen up. Suffice it to say constrained budgets will result in hiring IT geeks with little real business experience. In turn, these geeks will push for the latest and greatest technology regardless of it's applicibility to the business operation.

The contention between centralization and decentralization has been around since the first group was assigned to operate the company's computer mainframe. IT has always been about centralization, standardization, and control. On the other hand, the line worker in a company's department wants the technology they want, when they want it, with the flexibility to make it do what they want it to do. Hence, IT departments bought mainframes and departments bought mini-computers; IT countered by tying mini-computers into the mainframe as a means of control and departments countered by buying PCs. IT countered by linking PCs to mainframes, this forcing standardization and security and departments countered by moving functionality to edge devices such as smartphones. Today, with cloud computing resources and applications readily available, it is possible for a department to completely bypass the IT organization. It can do so without long-term investment or long-term commitment. It remains to be seen how IT will respond and how the department will counter.

However, with the current economic situation running at least through 2009, it will be difficult for the IT department to do anything unless it reduces cost. The result will be less training on emerging technology, less investment in emerging technology, and less internal development.

What say you?

Monday, December 1, 2008

IBM's "The Next Five in Five"

For the second year, IBM has released their "The Next Five in Five," their prognostication of technology to expect within the next five years. While some of these forecasts might actually see the light of day, don't expect all of them to be in wide adoption by the end of 2013. That is, they will be seen--some commercially--but they won't be used by the everyday person. The forecasts are:

1. Solar cells will be cheap and built into everything from glass windows to paint to asphalt. In turn this will usher in an energy revolution. Realistically, this is at least a decade away from widespread use.

2. You will be able to forecast your health through a diagnostic "crystal ball." Currently in limited use today, this forecast builds on increasingly sophisticated DNA analysis coupled with increasingly sophisticated clinical-labs-on-a-chip. Screens for certain cancers and other diseases are a real possibility in the next five years. Some are available today.

3. You will be using the "spoken Web." As IBM states, more of the world is spoken language literate than it is written word literate. Therefore, in order to reach a wider audience, the Web must go "verbal." This is already happening on a number of fronts. First, most PCs and Macs today can convert written words to voice. A number of services will allow you to access your email verbally using a phone. Second, with technologies introduced by Google, search requests can be made using the spoken word. The reverse is also true. Services such as Jott and Evernote will take spoken words and convert them to text. This trend is sure to increase over the next five years.

4. You will increasingly have access to and use "digital shopping assistants." Many are here today. For example, Ikea has terminals throughout their stores for customer use to look-up and find merchandise. A number of Web applications will allow you to comparison shop. Phone-based applications allow you to do the same thing right in the store. Finally, with location-aware phones, it is possible for an application to make shopping suggestions based on your current location. These capabilities will only get more sophisticated in the next five years.

5. You will never forget anything. A strong statement to be sure. IBM is referring to the huge number of technologies that are currently available or will be available in the next five years that will allow a person to record and recall information using spoken word, digital images, or captured screen shots. The technology will enable tagging, indexing, scheduling, and recall of virtually anything. Again, a variety of "To Do" list applications do this today on cell phones and synchronize that information so it can be accessed on the Web or many other devices. These capabilities--such as "Remember the Milk," "Jott," and "Evernote"--will become more sophisticated, accurate, and feature-rich over the next five years.

A complete description of "The Next Five in Five" can be found at:

http://www-03.IBM.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/26170.wss

What say you?

Monday, November 17, 2008

Now is the time to tax oil

I filled up my car this morning and it occurred to me that gas prices are about half what they were in June at the height of the latest gas-price spike. To a large extent, the increased gas prices have contributed heavily to our downward spiralling economy--resulting in increases in everything from gasoline to milk, virtually anything that has oil fuel as a component in manufacture or distribution.

During the summer, with oil prices high, the country (indeed, the whole planet) has had a long overdue discussion on our over-dependence on oil, oil's impact on our environment, the funding of hostilaties against us in oil-producing regions where we are not particularly liked, and the instability it creates in our economy. Unfortunately, a lot of TGIF discussion is beginning to die down now that oil prices are coming back down to levels seen before the latest spike. And that is the problem.

We have short-term memories. Assuming the financial crisis is resolved and credit begins flowing again, people will flock to the sharply reduced over-sized, gas guzzling SUVs--at least they will until the next gas spike. And that's the problem, our short-term memories get in the way of developing good, long-term behavior. There is a solution.

Taxes. I know it is an obscene concept, but taxation can play a very pivotal role in the transition to a non-oil-based economy. The problem is two-fold. First, as long as oil is incrementally cheaper than alternatives, there is little incentive to innovate alternatives. However, the point at which oil costs permanantly exceed alternatives, the impact will be devistating until such time as alternatives and the infrastructure are developed to deliver them. This is where taxation can play a positive and constructive role.

Increasing taxes on oil can level the competitive market allowing alternatives to be developed more rapidly. This would be done by two forces: first, taxes on oil would make oil consumption less attractive, resulting in higher tax revenues per gallon of fuel consumed and providing money that could be used to subsidize fledgling alternative fuel sources until they can gain economies of scale. A second benefit results from reduced consumption which in turn results in reduced demand, which in turn results in reduced oil prices. Keeping taxes on oil at an artifically high level basically means that oil producing nations help subsidize our development of alternatives. As the cost of alternative fuel production falls, subsidies can be lifted and oil taxes can be reduced, allowing natural market forces to take over.

So, we can pay now or we can pay later for the transition from oil. The longer we wait, the higher the cost. Had we heeded President Jimmy Carter's warning, we would not be in this situation.

Your thoughts?

Friday, November 23, 2007

Closer to the Edge

Edge computing is all about moving computing capability to a variety of devices enabling users to perform a variety of activities when and where they need it. Most often, edge computing is interpreted to mean mobile devices, but it could just as easily be your refrigerator, your television, your entertainment system, your mobile phone, or the various systems in your automobile.

Much of edge computing is already in place, it is just not obvious. For example, the Tivo used to track, schedule, record, and playback television programming is nothing more than a media center computer that has been programmed to record broadcast programming. In this context, the AppleTV is nothing more than an alternative programming computer tied to the television. The Slingbox is another programming device that captures video and streams that video to a variety of devices--from your TV to your computer, to your mobile phone. In these examples, the device is a server providing services to edge devices.

Another is the OnStar system in your automobile. Through this system, your car's performance can be tracked, your doors unlocked, or automatic alerts can be sent to a centralized monitoring center. X10 and similar technology provides monitoring of your house, enabling you to remotely turn on and off lights, set alarms, and control edge devices such as a television or appliance. In these example, the device is a monitoring and control unit providing manipulation and control over remote devices.

All of this edge technology is available now. Add to this the ability to view television programming on mobile phones (VCast, SprintTV, MobiTV, YouTube, and the increasing number of streaming videos available on Web sites); the ability to listen to audio programming through tools such as iRadio and streaming sites on broadcast Web sites; and the increasing number of sites that enable word processing, spreadsheet manipulation, and presentation development (Google Apps is a primary example). All of these are providing expanded access to computing by any device that can access those sites and capabilities.

As a result, computing is no longer limited to the desktop or the laptop computer. Today, browsing the Web can be accomplished on your phone and your game console. Word processing can be accomplished on any device that accesses the Web. Is the computer dead? Not by a long shot. However, its central importance in information management is being reduced as processing is delivered through the Web and access and control devices become more incorporated into edge devices. We are moving closer to the edge.

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

More Thoughts on iPhone as the Future

My last post related to positioning technology such as the iPhone in context of what that meant for the future. The intention of this post is to expand further on iPhone's impact now that I have had a chance to work with the platform and the apparent ecosystem that is rapidly developing around it.

The iPhone as Communication Device: The more I have played with it, the more I believe the iPhone to be a new class of network access device. It provides both telephonic and digital data access in a small, large-screen, lightweight footprint. The key for the future is that it is fully capable of wireless cellular voice and data and Wi-Fi voice (VoIP) and data. Future versions (whether from Apple or another
vendor) can be expected to expand on this to offer 3G, Wi-Max or whatever else comes along on the next couple of years. The key here is that the communications platform is becoming independent of the communications network. This results in more freedom for the consumer and commoditization and consolidation of the network services sector.

The iPhone as Presentation Device: There is a lot of talk about the lack of a finder, inability to save documents, and the inability to add applications to the iPhone. I suppose that is true and the OS X operating system definitely has the power and capability to provide these. However, suppose for a moment that the intention of the iPhone is not to add more to the phone, but rather to provide improved access to content ,applications, storage, and capability through the network.
If that is the case, the iPhone could change not just phones, but change our whole view of mobile computing. Seen in this context, the iPhone becomes the disruptive enabler of the next generation Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) model. Supporting Apple in this venture are Google, Yahoo, and Salesforce.com to name a few. Indeed, a quick search for "iPhone applications" through Google will bring back a number of individual applications as well as a number of application aggregators. If interested, a few that will indicate the range of applications are http://www.mockdock.com and http://getleaflets.com. Both of these sites provide a Web page that looks like the main screen on the iPhone and enable the user to place application icons on that page so access to the applications can be accomplished by pressing a linked icon.


At present, these applications are really "gadgets" or "widgets" that are available through tools such as Google's gadget bar or Windows Vista's gadget bar. While fun and convenient on a desktop, these small applets become highly usable portable tools when provided through a mobile communication and presentation device such as smart phone. For example, there are gadgets available that will find Wi-Fi hotspots simply by keying in the ZIP code (although in all fairness, similar information can be gained by keying in "wifi" and a ZIP code in the iPhone's Google Map application). Other gadgets range from applications that list the lowest gas prices in a ZIP code to news readers and social network interfaces.

Together, the communication and presentation capabilities of this class of device represents quite a force in the emerging mobile communication space, especially when you consider that a number of these applications target small to medium size businesses and those are the enterprises that are typically early technology adopters. Indeed, it was this market sector that was the early adopter of the PC, the Web as a market, and SaaS as an application delivery mode.